Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Rainfed Sorghum Productivity in Central Tanzania

The central regions of the country stretching from Dodoma to Mwanza account for three-quarters of Tanzania’s 500,000 to 800,000 ton annual sorghum harvest. The zone is one of the most sensitive to climate variability and change mainly owing to temperature and rainfall variability. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of rainfall in the zone have changed. One of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of the climate variability and change is the increase in prolonged dry spells. In Tanzania, dry spells have led to crop failures especially maize. In this study, an attempt was made to estimate climate change impacts on crop yields in the zone through developing a simulation framework using DSSAT as a tool for assessing the impact of variability and changes in rainfall, temperature and evapo-transpiration.
Les régions centrales du pays qui s’étendent de Dodoma à Mwanza comptent pour les trois quarts de la récolte annuelle de sorgho évaluée de 500.000 à 800.000 tonnes en Tanzanie. La zone est l’une des régions les plus sensibles à la variabilité et au changement climatiques suite principalement à la variabilité de la pluviométrie et de la température. Au cours du 20ème siècle, à la fois la température et la répartition des pluies dans la zone ont changé. L’un des exemples les plus dramatiques des conséquences de la variabilité et des changements climatiques est l’augmentation des périodes prolongées de sécheresse. En Tanzanie, les périodes de sécheresse ont conduit à de mauvaises récoltes en particulier du maïs. Dans cette étude, on a tenté d’estimer les impacts du changement climatique sur les rendements des cultures dans la zone à travers l’élaborationd’un cadre de simulation en utilisant DSSAT comme un outil d’évaluation de l’impact de la variabilité et des changements dans les précipitations, la température et l’évapotranspiration.
Extended abstracts submitted under Risk and Vulnerability
Date of publication: 
Region Focus: 
East Africa
RUFORUM Conferences and Workshops
Licence conditions: 
Open Access
Access restriction: 
Printed resource

The 2012 RUFORUM Biennial Conference is the third in the series. The main objective of the Biennial conferences is to provide a platform for agricultural research for development stakeholders in Africa and beyond to actively exchange findings and experiences, while at the same time learning lessons towards improving performance of the agricultural sector and ultimately people’s livelihoods. The biennial conference is RUFORUM’s most comprehensive meeting for the diversity of stakeholers in agriculture. It is especially dedicated to graduate students and their supervisors, grantees in RUFORUM member universities and alumni. It is a platform for peer review, quality control, mentorship, networking and shared learning. The third Biennial Conference was attended by 657 participants.This record contains an extended abstract accepted under the theme of Risk and Vulnerability