Rice demand and supply projection analysis in Nigeria from 2018 to 2030

Rice is a cash crop in Nigeria that is widely grown and consumed in all geopolitical zones of the country. Rice production in Nigeria has increased over time because of increasing demand for rice, however the increase in supply of rice is not sufficient to match the increasing demand. This study analysed the rice demand and supply projection in Nigeria from 2018 to 2030, projecting the aggregate demand and supply for rice in Nigeria, as well as the disaggregated demand by region for rice in Nigeria from 2018 to 2030. The findings show that the aggregate demand for rice in Nigeria is projected at 19,796,832,353kg with a 67.35 percent projected increase for rice demand in 2030 and the population size is also projected to increase by 36 percent in 2030. The rice disaggregated demand across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria also showed an increased demand in all zones, with the highest increase at 70.70 percent in North Central. The aggregate rice supply is projected at 8,773,617,507 kg, indicating a 56.92 percent increase for rice demand in 2030. This shows that the supply of rice in Nigeria will not be sufficient to meet the demand of rice in the country by 2030. The study therefore recommends that the Federal Government and private sectors should strengthen efforts towards increasing domestic production of rice, by using more efficient technologies as well as enhancing agricultural research so that sustainable solutions to boosting rice production in the country can be achieved.