The association between cancer incidence, HIV prevalence, and Gross Domestic Product in Uganda

This study examined the association of cancer incidence, HIV prevalence and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Uganda. The study utilised secondary data where Cancer data were obtained from the Kampala Cancer Registry, Department of Pathology, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University. GDP data was obtained from IMF’s World Economic Outlook and AIDs data was obtained from the global AIDs epidemic reports of UNAIDS 2017. Multivariate time series analysis method was used covering a period from 1993 -2014. The variables were tested for stationarity, co-integration, autocorrelation and optimal lag length was determined. The findings indicate that the Non-AIDs defining cancers, that is, stomach (p=0.000), eye (p=0.000), liver (p=0.000) cancer and prostate cancer (p=0.000) had a long run positive significant relationship with HIV prevalence while colon (p=0.002), lung (p=0.00) and breast cancer (p=0.004) had a negative significant relationship with HIV prevalence. These cancers, that is, breast (p=0.00) and prostate (p=0.001) had a positive significant relationship with GDP while cancer of the lung (p=0.000) had a negative significant relationship with GDP in Uganda. AIDS defining cancers such as Non-Hodgkin cancer (p=0.001) had a long run positive significant relationship with HIV prevalence while cervical cancer (p=0.000) had a negative significant relationship with HIV prevalence. Cervical cancer (p=0.014) had a positive significant relationship with GDP in Uganda. The study recommended that the Government of Uganada should strengthen policies that reduce HIV since it was observed that HIV had a significant relationship with cancer. In addition, the Government should encourage HIV patients to screen for non- AIDs defining cancers since they are also at a risk for such cancers as well as educate the masses that some of the lifestyle habits could lead to cancer.